The future of the Baltimore Orioles’ spring training in Fort Lauderdale took a big hit Friday, and that may bode well for Indian River County in its hunt to replace the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Federal Aviation Administration told Fort Lauderdale officials they won’t agree to the city’s deal with the Orioles for a new stadium unless the team’s annual payments to the FAA increase by more than 1,000 percent. Any plans to overhaul Fort Lauderdale Stadium need to be approved by the FAA because the facility sits on airport land.

“Unless the FAA changes their mind, I would imagine they (the Orioles) would move,” he said.

Craig Callan, Dodgers vice president of spring training and minor league facilities, said, “I think that’s great news for Vero Beach. There’s all good reasons for the Orioles to be in Vero Beach, and what a ‘wow’ that would be for the community.”

Indian River County Administrator Joe Baird has been negotiating with a team for the past several months.

TROUBLE IN FORT LAUDERDALE

• The Federal Aviation Administration told Fort Lauderdale officials they won’t agree to the city’s deal with the Orioles for a new stadium unless the team’s annual payments to the FAA increase by more than 1,000 percent.
• Any plans to overhaul Fort Lauderdale Stadium need to be approved by the FAA because the facility sits on airport land.

DODGERS’ PLANS

• The Dodgers have not yet notified Indian River County whether they will leave by 2009 or 2010, though their new facility in Glendale, Ariz., is expected to open in 2009.

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Piper Aircraft, Inc., the State of Florida and Indian River County today announced an agreement that will keep the general aviation manufacturer’s headquarters and manufacturing facilities in Indian River County.

“Florida is a state that leads the nation in encouraging aviation, and Piper Aircraft is one of general aviation’s uncontested leaders,” said Florida Governor Charlie Crist. “This agreement is an investment in Florida. It represents thousands of jobs and hundreds of millions of dollars in wages, economic development and other contributions for Indian River County, surrounding local communities and our state.”

“We are pleased and honored to announce our decision to remain and expand our operations in Indian River County,” said Piper President & CEO James K. Bass. “Our decision is not just a vote of confidence for our hometown, it is also a commitment by Piper to Indian River County and the State of Florida.”

The decision to stay came after an extensive site selection process that addressed fundamental issues and needs that Piper cited as vital in remaining competitive and prospering in what is a very challenging industry.

Indian River County Administrator Joseph Baird underscored the value Piper has brought to Indian River County over the 50 years it has called Vero Beach home. Citing an economic impact study conducted by The Washington Economic Group in March 2007, he said that the joint county and state incentive package is an investment in Piper, which will return much more to the community and the state.

“The Washington Economic Group’s study showed that Piper contributes $518 million per year to our local economy,” Baird said, referring to the study commissioned by the Indian River County Chamber of Commerce. “That investment is made up of the millions of dollars the company pays in taxes and to local suppliers, as well as the huge ripple effect that comes from Piper employees who spend their paychecks locally in our stores and restaurants and contribute to our community organizations and charitable causes.”

In signing the agreement, Piper accepted a $32 million incentive package from the state and county – to be paid out over three years – and made a commitment to remain and grow in Indian River County. The agreement ended a two-year, site-selection review process that in recent months had narrowed the field to three locations, including Piper’s current site in Vero Beach, Fla.

Bass said Piper’s decision factored in many criteria and ultimately concluded that remaining in Indian River County was the best choice for many different reasons.

“One of the most important factors in our decision to stay has been our workforce,” Bass said. “Indian River County and its surrounding communities are home for the vast majority of the men and women of Piper. The incentive package demonstrates a commitment to making our community a place where business and industry not only want to stay, but where others will seek to relocate.

“We have a skilled workforce and many talented people in our county and throughout the state,” he said. “By helping Piper stay and continue to invest in Indian River County, state and local officials are sending the message that Florida is a friend of business and industry. To that end, I look forward to encouraging businesses and industries to move to Indian River County and the state.”

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According to the Realtors Association of Indian River County housing report released Friday, 162 existing single-family homes sold in April, up from 139 during the same period last year.

The median prices dropped to $181,250 from $217,400 in April 2007.

Indian River’s condominium sales mirrored the single-family market. Realtors sold 68 units in April, up from 42 in April 2007.

The median price decreased to $132,750 from $165,750 in April 2007.

“There’s no question that the reduction in prices helped spur the sales, but it may also be linked to the consumer’s expectations with the housing market,” said Richard Hope, past president of the Treasure Coast Builders Association and president of The Hope Co., a Vero Beach general contractor.

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The dire headlines coming fast and furious in the financial and popular press suggest that the housing crisis is intensifying. Yet it is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now, including Vero Beach Real Estate.

How can this be? For starters, a bottom does not mean that prices are about to return to the heady days of 2005. That probably won’t happen for another 15 years. It just means that the trend is no longer getting worse, which is the critical factor.

Most people forget that the current housing bust is nearly three years old. Home sales peaked in July 2005. New home sales are down a staggering 63% from peak levels of 1.4 million. Housing starts have fallen more than 50% and, adjusted for population growth, are back to the trough levels of 1982.

Furthermore, residential construction is close to 15-year lows at 3.8% of GDP; by the fourth quarter of this year, it will probably hit the lowest level ever. So what’s going to stop the housing decline? Very simply, the same thing that caused the bust: affordability.

The boom made housing unaffordable for many American families, especially first-time home buyers. During the 1990s and early 2000s, it took 19% of average monthly income to service a conforming mortgage on the average home purchased. By 2005 and 2006, it was absorbing 25% of monthly income. For first time buyers, it went from 29% of income to 37%. That just proved to be too much.

Prices got so high that people who intended to actually live in the houses they purchased (as opposed to speculators) stopped buying. This caused the bubble to burst.

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Henry Fishkind, of the consulting firm Fishkind & Associates said Tuesday that “2008 is the consolidation year.  2009 and 2010 will be better. I believe we can see the bottom,” referring to the bottom of the current economic cycle.

Home sales, starts and prices have dropped in the region since late 2006, according to industry data. There are now fewer housing starts than sales, Fishkind said. “That’s the first indication of the bottom of the cycle.”

Fishkind expects the national economy to improve later this year after taxpayers start spending Treasury-issued checks. Fishkind said while the tax rebate checks will spur a recovery, he warned that prices would go up.

“There will be some inflation next year,” he warned. As a result, the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise interest rates to squeeze inflation out of the economy.

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Good news for Vero Beach Real Estate?  According to billionaire investor Sam Zell, the US economy will avoid recession as the housing market begins to recover this spring.

Speaking on “Squawk Box” this morning, Zell attributed much of the current economic troubles to fear-mongering and politicking by Democratic presidential contenders Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama.

“Obviously what we have going on is an attempt to create a self-fulfilling prophecy,” said Zell, chairman of Equity Investments Group and owner of the Chicago Cubs, Chicago Tribune, Los Angeles Times and other companies. “We have two Democratic candidates who are vying with each other to describe the economic situation worse.

“The reality is that if you live on Wall Street and you’re in the credit markets the world couldn’t be worse. If you’re a farmer and you’re getting $25 for your wheat, you’re having a great time. If you’re a CEO and you’ve got a balance sheet that’s bullet-proof, you’re in a great position. This whole thing is way out of control, way out of hand.”

Zell said that although he doesn’t try to pick bottoms in markets he believes housing has hit its nadir and will turn around this spring as inventory clears out.

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